Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 2.164217 2.284766 2.414735 2.566476 2.740387 2.935551 3.174225
2025-04-27 2.067575 2.228599 2.410632 2.635248 2.910445 3.244809 3.696366
2025-05-04 1.972355 2.154057 2.365849 2.637156 2.985816 3.436047 4.096871
2025-05-11 1.899550 2.095689 2.329867 2.639107 3.052920 3.617251 4.515175
2025-05-18 1.813193 2.013256 2.255809 2.582542 3.031886 3.668758 4.745889
2025-05-25 1.758935 1.965882 2.220797 2.571480 3.068299 3.803792 5.142527
2025-06-01 1.709495 1.921103 2.185261 2.555259 3.093308 3.922172 5.543324
2025-06-08 1.663972 1.878591 2.149560 2.535042 3.108695 4.025205 5.948505
2025-06-15 1.639836 1.861826 2.146046 2.558344 3.190384 4.250640 6.714728
2025-06-22 1.580041 1.796401 2.074363 2.479533 3.105304 4.168387 6.709497
2025-06-29 1.551665 1.770823 2.055052 2.474969 3.137353 4.304485 7.343951
2025-07-06 1.508955 1.724905 2.006128 2.424067 3.089565 4.281904 7.518794
2025-07-13 1.494064 1.716337 2.009417 2.452936 3.180189 4.555071 8.874825
2025-07-20 1.490872 1.722960 2.033682 2.514643 3.333648 4.999764 11.649455
2025-07-27 1.469000 1.703416 2.019974 2.516394 3.380864 5.222101 14.054650
2025-08-03 1.448585 1.685055 2.006993 2.518156 3.427896 5.458005 17.695615
2025-08-10 1.413682 1.645805 1.962495 2.466971 3.370031 5.411097 18.643327
2025-08-17 1.392664 1.625083 1.944078 2.456946 3.390404 5.580543 23.821196
2025-08-24 1.371447 1.603464 1.923534 2.442238 3.400081 5.724389 31.823142
2025-08-31 1.350286 1.581356 1.901506 2.423892 3.400749 5.843742 46.004219
2025-09-07 1.341154 1.575670 1.903313 2.445036 3.483488 6.246607 NaN
2025-09-14 1.307307 1.534597 1.851436 2.373437 3.367371 5.966983 165.524994
2025-09-21 1.292898 1.520578 1.839552 2.369283 3.393351 6.178622 NaN